Extreme meteorological events are becoming more frequent as a consequence of global warming. Typhoon as one of the natural disasters has caused significant damages globally. Therefore, developing theoretical models to effectively predict typhoon probability is urgent. Based on the stochastic process theory, this paper studies the local statistics of typhoon frequency and suggests a stochastic process model that can describe the number of typhoons occurring locally in time domain. Mathematical evidence has been provided to prove that the number of typhoons during a certain period can be described by using a stochastic process model. Furthermore, the dependency of typhoon occurrences in different time periods and the probability distribution of typhoon occurrence intervals are explored. The suggested model is employed to discuss the probability of typhoon on Naozhou Island in South China Sea during May to September from year 2000–2016 subject to the absence of the event in May. The results reveal that the probability distribution of typhoon events predicted by the suggested model is more reliable in comparison with conventional approach as it considered the typhoon occurrence in time domain, which can provides useful information for predicting the probability of typhoons occurrence and intervals in engineering practice.

Conventional approach; Engineering practices; Local statistics; Natural disasters; South China sea; Statistical characteristics; Stochastic process model; Typhoon frequency

Ocean University of China