A three-step approach to post-fire mortality modelling in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait) stands for enhanced forest planning in Portugal

作者：Garcia Gonzalo J^*; Marques S; Borges J G; Botequim B; Oliveira M M; Tome J; Tome M

来源：Forestry, 2011, 84(2): 197-206.

DOI：10.1093/forestry/cpr006

Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait) is a very important timber-producing species in Portugal with a yield of similar to 67.1 million m(3) year(-1). It covers similar to 22.6 per cent of the forest area (710.6 x 10(3) ha). Fire is the most significant threat to maritime pine plantations. This paper discusses research aiming at the development of post-fire mortality models for P. pinaster Ait stands in Portugal that can be used for enhanced integration of forest and fire management planning activities. Post-fire mortality was modelled using biometric and fire data from 2005/2006 National Forest Inventory plots and other sample plots within 2006-2008 fire perimeters. A three-step modelling strategy based on logistic regression methods was used. Firstly, the probability of mortality to occur after a wildfire in a stand is predicted and secondly, the degree of mortality caused by a wildfire on stands where mortality occurs is quantified. Thirdly, mortality is distributed among trees. The models are based on easily measurable tree characteristics so that forest managers may predict post-fire mortality based on forest structure. The models show that relative mortality decreases when average d.b.h. increases, while slope and tree size diversity increase the mortality.

• 出版日期2011-4