An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm(-2) radiative forcing

作者：Masui Toshihiko^*; Matsumoto Kenichi; Hijioka Yasuaki; Kinoshita Tsuguki; Nozawa Toru; Ishiwatari Sawako; Kato Etsushi; Shukla P R; Yamagata Yoshiki; Kainuma Mikiko

来源：Climatic Change, 2011, 109(1-2): 59-76.

DOI：10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5

Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm(-2)) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO2 and N2O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models.

• 出版日期2011-11