科研之友
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摘要
A customized version of the deterministic Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling system was used to assess the impacts of two alternative scenarios: (1) an increase in Canadian ethanol demand to 10% of domestic liquid fuel consumption by 2011 met through increased ethanol imports, and (2) the same increase in Canadian ethanol demand met only through increased domestic supply. The results reveal import barriers injure Canadian consumers by limiting their access to supplies offered for sale at lower prices by more efficient producers, particularly those located in subtropical regions. With freer trade, the domestic ethanol price would fall while the world price would rise due to the higher demand for ethanol in Canada. The results also show that import restrictions directly undermine the effectiveness and increase the costliness of a higher consumption mandate in Canada. The relatively less expensive ethanol is for the final consumer, the more likely they will use it as fuel over available alternatives. The implication is that restricting imports of ethanol is counterproductive to the policy objective of increasing domestic ethanol consumption.
- 出版日期2011-12
