Maximum a posteriori estimation through simulated annealing for binary asteroid orbit determination

作者：Kovalenko Irina D^*; Stoica Radu S; Emelyanov Nikolay V

来源：Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2017, 471(4): 4637-4647.

DOI：10.1093/mnras/stx1899

• methods: statistical
• celestial mechanics
• minor planets
• asteroids: general

In this paper, we consider a new method for the binary asteroid orbit determination problem. The method is based on the Bayesian approach with a global optimization algorithm. The orbital parameters to be determined are modelled through an a posteriori distribution made of a priori and likelihood terms. The first term constrains the parameter space and it allows the introduction of available knowledge about the orbit. The second term is based on given observations and it allows us to use and compare different observational errormodels. Once the a posteriori model is built, the estimator of the orbital parameters is computed using a global optimization procedure: the simulated annealing algorithm. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) techniques are verified using simulated and real data. The obtained results validate the proposed method. The new approach guarantees independence of the initial parameter estimation and theoretical convergence towards the global optimization solution. It is particularly useful in the following situations: whenever a good initial orbit estimation is difficult to obtain, whenever observations are not well sampled and whenever the statistical behaviour of the observational errors cannot be said to be Gaussian-like.

• 出版日期2017-11