科研之友
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摘要
The characters of experiments of prediction on monthly mean atmospheric circulation, seasonal prediction and seasonal forecast of summer rainfall over China are summarized in the present paper. The results demonstrate that climate prediction can be made only if the time average is taken. However. the improvement of the skill score of seasonal forecasts depends on the studies on physical parameters and mechanisms that are responsible for seasonal anomaly. Finally, the predictability of seasonal forecast of temperature and precipitation is discussed, including effectiveness and accuracy.
- 出版日期2001
- 单位北京大学
