A Semi-Infinite Interval-Stochastic Risk Management Model for River Water Pollution Control under Uncertainty

作者：Liu, Jing; Li, Yongping^*; Huang, Guohe; Fan, Yurui

来源：Water (Switzerland), 2017, 9(5): 351.

DOI：10.3390/w9050351

• decision making
• financial risk management
• functional interval
• pollution control
• stochastic with recourse
• water quality

In this study, a semi-infinite interval-stochastic risk management (SIRM) model is developed for river water pollution control, where various policy scenarios are explored in response to economic penalties due to randomness and functional intervals. SIRM can also control the variability of the recourse cost as well as capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. Then, the SIRM model is applied to water pollution control of the Xiangxihe watershed. Tradeoffs between risks and benefits are evaluated, indicating any change in the targeted benefit and risk level would yield varied expected benefits. Results disclose that the uncertainty of system components and risk preference of decision makers have significant effects on the watershed's production generation pattern and pollutant control schemes as well as system benefit. Decision makers with risk-aversive attitude would accept a lower system benefit (with lower production level and pollutant discharge); a policy based on risk-neutral attitude would lead to a higher system benefit (with higher production level and pollutant discharge). The findings can facilitate the decision makers in identifying desired product generation plans in association with financial risk minimization and pollution mitigation.

• 出版日期2017-5
• 单位厦门理工学院