Markov model of smoking cessation

作者：Killeen Peter R^*

来源：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011, 108: 15549-15556.

DOI：10.1073/pnas.1011277108

• quitting tobacco
• survival model
• nicotine
• monoamine oxidase

Survival functions from smoking cessation interventions are described by a three-state Markov model. On quitting, smokers transit through a state of withdrawal characterized by a high rate of relapse, and then into a more secure state of long-term abstinence. The Markov model embodies the dynamic nature of the cessation/relapse process; it permits stronger inference to long-term abstinence rates, provides measures of treatment efficacy, describes the outcomes of new quit attempts, and suggests mechanisms for the survival process.

• 出版日期2011-9-13