Soybean yield in future climate scenarios for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

作者：Cera Jossana Ceolin^*; Streck Nereu Augusto; Jarutais Fensterseifer Cesar Augusto; Teleginski Ferraz Simone Erotildes; Bexaira Kelin Pribs; Silveira Waleska Bolzon; Cardoso Anthony Paz

来源：Pesquisa Agropecuaria Brasileira, 2017, 52(6): 380-392.

DOI：10.1590/S0100-204X2017000600002

• Glycine max
• climate change
• Cropgro-Soybean model
• RCP4.5
• SoySim model
• SRES A1B

The objective of this work was to estimate the yield potential and the water-limited yield of soybean (Glycine max) in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in two future climate scenarios, SRES A1B and RCP4.5, using the SoySim and Cropgro-Soybean simulation models. In both models, three maturity groups (4.8, 5.5, and 6.0) and six sowing dates (09/01, 10/01, 11/01, 12/01, 01/01, and 02/01) were considered in the SRES A1B-CMIP3 and RCP4.5-CMIP5 scenarios. The analyzed variable was grain yield at 13% moisture (Mg ha(-1)). Soybean yield potential in Rio Grande do Sul should increase up to the end of the 21st century, according to both scenarios. Water-limited yield of soybean also increases up to the end of the 21st century, by the SRES A1B-CMIP3 scenario; however, it will decrease in future periods, by the RCP4.5-CMIP5 scenario because of limited soil water.

• 出版日期2017-6