Assessment of Point Process Models for Earthquake Forecasting

作者：Bray Andrew^*; Schoenberg Frederic Paik

来源：Statistical Science, 2013, 28(4): 510-520.

DOI：10.1214/13-STS440

• Earthquakes
• model assessment
• point process
• residual analysis
• spatial-temporal statistics
• super-thinning

Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the data is typically assessed using a variety of numerical tests, which unfortunately have low power and may be misleading for model comparison purposes. Promising alternatives exist, especially residual methods such as super-thinning and Voronoi residuals. This article reviews some of these tests and residual methods for determining the goodness of fit of earthquake forecasting models.

• 出版日期2013-11