科研之友
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摘要
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of sub-seasonal climate variability in the global tropics. As such it represents an opportunity for intra-seasonal rainfall prediction and, perhaps, for explaining dynamics that underlie longer term variability and trends. This opportunity is of substantial interest for tropical Africa, where rainfall variability has significant impacts on agriculture, energy, and natural ecosystems. The objective of this review paper is to inventory and assess the state of knowledge of MJO influence on African rainfall. A number of studies have identified statistical links between MJO and sub-seasonal rainfall variability in West, East, and Southern Africa. The proposed mechanisms to explain this influence differ by region and by season, and they often involve multiscale interactions between local precipitation processes and MJO-associated atmospheric dynamics. Dynamically-based forecast systems have some skill in predicting MJO evolution to time horizons of 3-4 weeks, and some can capture teleconnections to Africa. On longer time scales, there is evidence that MJO activity both modulates and is modulated by the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The implications of these interactions for MJO connections to Africa require further research, as does the potential for trends in MJO behavior and impacts on Africa under global climate change.
- 出版日期2017-2-1
