A statistician plays darts

作者:Tibshirani Ryan J*; Price Andrew; Taylor Jonathan
来源:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series A: Statistics in Society , 2011, 174: 213-226.
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00651.x

摘要

Darts is enjoyed both as a pub game and as a professional competitive activity. Yet most players aim for the highest scoring region of the board, regardless of their level of skill. By modelling a dart throw as a two-dimensional Gaussian random variable, we show that this is not always the optimal strategy. We develop a method, using the EM algorithm, for a player to obtain a personalized heat map, where the bright regions correspond to the aiming locations with high (expected) pay-offs. This method does not depend in any way on our Gaussian assumption, and we discuss alternative models as well.

  • 出版日期2011