Ups and downs of economics and econophysics - Facebook forecast

作者：Gajic Nenad^*; Budinski Petkovic Ljuba

来源：Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications , 2013, 392(1): 208-214.

DOI：10.1016/j.physa.2012.08.018

• Economy
• Forecasting
• Scenario
• Statistics
• Stock
• Valuation

What is econophysics and its relationship with economics? What is the state of economics after the global economic crisis, and is there a future for the paradigm of market equilibrium, with imaginary perfect competition and rational agents? Can the next paradigm of economics adopt important assumptions derived from econophysics models: that markets are chaotic systems, striving to extremes as bubbles and crashes show, with psychologically motivated, statistically predictable individual behaviors? Is the future of econophysics, as predicted here, to disappear and become a part of economics? A good test of the current state of econophysics and its methods is the valuation of Facebook immediately after the initial public offering - this forecast indicates that Facebook is highly overvalued, and its IPO valuation of 104 billion dollars is mostly the new financial bubble based on the expectations of unlimited growth, although it's easy to prove that Facebook is close to the upper limit of its users.

• 出版日期2013-1-1