Analysis of uncertainty in harmonic measurement based on Monte Carlo method

作者：Huang, De-Hua^*; Zhang, Lu-Liang; Zeng, Jiang; Sun, Wei-Wei

来源：Power System Protection and Control, 2012, 40(20): 62-67.

• 95% probability values
• Calculation results
• Confidence interval
• Guangdong Province
• Harmonic measurements
• Harmonic voltages
• Mathematical mode
• National natural science foundation of chinas

The result of using traditional method to calculate the confidence interval of the harmonic 95% probability value is ±5%. Such precision can not meet the current requirements of harmonic measurement data analysis. For this reason, the mathematical model of using random variable to calculate the harmonic 95% probability value is proposed. The Monte Carlo method can be used to calculate the harmonic 95% probability value and determine its confidence interval. A practical MATLAB program which uses Monte Carlo method to calculate the harmonic 95% probability value is established. Then we use this program to calculate the harmonic 95% probability value of harmonic voltage data measured in a ferroalloy plant in Guizhou and get its confidence interval, which is ±1%. Calculation results show that Monte Carlo method is a practical way to calculate the harmonic 95% probability value and get more accurate confidence intervals. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50807016 and No. 51177051) and Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (No. 9151064101000049).

• 单位
  华南理工大学