An empirical model for landslide travel distance prediction in Wenchuan earthquake area

作者：Guo Deping^*; Hamada Masanori; He Chuan; Wang Yufeng; Zou Yulin

来源：Landslides, 2014, 11(2): 281-291.

DOI：10.1007/s10346-013-0444-y

• Landslide
• Travel distance prediction
• Statistical analysis
• Influential factors
• Wenchuan earthquake

Sliding mass of landslides highly endangered the area along travel path, especially landslides with long travel distance. It is necessary to develop an effective prediction model for preliminarily evaluating landslide travel distance so as to improve disaster prevention and relocation. This paper collected 54 landslides with 347-4,170 m travel distance triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake to discuss the effectiveness of various influential factors on landslide travel distance and obtained an empirical model for its prediction. The results revealed that rock type, sliding source volume, and slope transition angle were the predominant factors on landslide travel distance. The validity of proposed model was verified by the satisfactory agreement between observations and predictions. Therefore, this model might be practically applicable in Wenchuan earthquake area and other similar geomorphological and geological regions.

• 出版日期2014-4
• 单位西南交通大学