An investigation of trends in precipitation volume for the last three decades in different regions of Fars province, Iran

作者：Ahani Hossein; Kherad Mehrzad; Kousari Mohammad Reza^*; Rezaeian Zadeh Mehdi; Karampour Mohammad Amin; Ejraee Faezeh; Kamali Saeedeh

来源：Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2012, 109(3-4): 361-382.

DOI：10.1007/s00704-011-0572-z

Under condition of climate changes as global warming, monitoring and detecting trend of precipitation volume is essential and will be useful for agricultural sections. Considering the fact that there were not enough research related to precipitation volume, this study aimed to determine trends in precipitation volume, monthly and annually in different regions of Fars province for the last three decades (33 years period; 1978-2010). Fars province is located in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, and it plays an important role in agricultural production. Inverse distance weighting interpolation method was used to provide precipitation data for all regions. To analyze the trends of precipitation volume, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, and 10-year moving average low-pass filter (within time series) were used. The negative trends were identified by the Sen's slope estimator as well as Mann-Kendall test. However, all the trends were insignificant at the surveyed confidence level (95%). With regards to the application of 10-year moving average low-pass filter, a considerable decreasing trend was observed after around year 1994. Since one of the most important restrictions in agricultural development of the Fars province is lack of sufficient water resources, any changes onward to lack of sufficient precipitation impose impressive pressure and stress on valuable resources and subsequently agricultural production.

• 出版日期2012-8