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摘要
Background: Mortality prediction models generally require clinical data or are derived from information coded at discharge, limiting adjustment for presenting severity of illness in observational studies using administrative data. %26lt;br%26gt;Objectives: To develop and validate a mortality prediction model using administrative data available in the first 2 hospital days. %26lt;br%26gt;Research Design: After dividing the dataset into derivation and validation sets, we created a hierarchical generalized linear mortality model that included patient demographics, comorbidities, medications, therapies, and diagnostic tests administered in the first 2 hospital days. We then applied the model to the validation set. %26lt;br%26gt;Subjects: Patients aged %26gt;= 18 years admitted with pneumonia between July 2007 and June 2010 to 347 hospitals in Premier, Inc.%26apos;s Perspective database. %26lt;br%26gt;Measures: In hospital mortality. %26lt;br%26gt;Results: The derivation cohort included 200,870 patients and the validation cohort had 50,037. Mortality was 7.2%. In the multivariable model, 3 demographic factors, 25 comorbidities, 41 medications, 7 diagnostic tests, and 9 treatments were associated with mortality. Factors that were most strongly associated with mortality included receipt of vasopressors, non-invasive ventilation, and bicarbonate. The model had a c-statistic of 0.85 in both cohorts. In the validation cohort, deciles of predicted risk ranged from 0.3% to 34.3% with observed risk over the same deciles from 0.1% to 33.7%. %26lt;br%26gt;Conclusions: A mortality model based on detailed administrative data available in the first 2 hospital days had good discrimination and calibration. The model compares favorably to clinically based prediction models and may be useful in observational studies when clinical data are not available.
- 出版日期2014-1-31
- 单位河北医科大学
