科研之友
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摘要
Background: Campylobacter spp. are the leading cause of foodborne infection worldwide, with a seasonal disease peak that might be affected by temperature increase. We studied the relationship between ambient temperature and weekly notified Campylobacter spp.infections.
Methods: Data on 29,762 laboratory-confirmed cases of Campylobacter infection for the period, January, 1999 to December, 2010 were retrieved from the Ministry of Health registry. To estimate the association between the number of weekly cases of Campylobacter infection and the national average temperature at lags 0-3 weeks, firstly, we used GAM models, and secondly two-segment piecewise linear Poisson regressions. The effect of temperature was adjusted for seasonality, long-term trends and holidays.
Results: We found a J-shaped relationship between ambient temperature and notified Campylobacter spp. cases. For C. jejuni in all ages, the curve below the threshold was constant and the percent increase in cases for 1 degrees C above a threshold of 27 degrees C was 15.4% (95%CI: 6.7-24.1%). For ages 3-10 yr and > = 26 yr the curve was constant below the threshold and positive above it; the percent increase in cases for 1 degrees C was 17.7%(95%CI: 6.0-29.4%) and 23.7%(95%CI: 11.6-35.8%), respectively. For ages 0-2 yr the curve was linear with no threshold and the percent increase for 1 degrees C was 5.1%(95%CI: 2.1-8.1%). For ages 11-25 yr the curve was always constant. Results for C. coli were similar.
Conclusion: Our findings indicate that higher temperatures throughout the year affect Campylobacter spp. morbidity, especially in younger children. This should be taken into consideration in public education and health system preparedness for temperature increases as a result of climate change.
- 出版日期2018-7
