Analysis of trample disaster and a case study - Mihong bridge fatality in China in 2004

作者：Zhen Wang^*; Mao Liu; Yuan Zhao

来源：Safety Science, 2008, 46(8): 1255-1270.

DOI：10.1016/j.ssci.2007.08.002

• crowd disaster
• crowd gathering procedure
• quantitative analysis
• mathematical modeling
• simulation

This paper presents an analysis for the crowd disaster at the Mihong bridge on 5 February 2004. The analysis includes the description of the whole process of the disaster, some characteristics of the trample, and with the help of SSM (soft systematic methodology) the factors that led to the disaster, etc. Through the detailed analysis, we conclude that the main causes of the disaster are as follows: the poor estimation of the tourist population, dereliction of duties, deficient communication, and the design fault of the bridge as well. To emphasis the significance of the management on the critical points, quantitative analysis of the crowd gathering process of the disaster were carried out by mathematical model and simulation methods, the results of the two methods are approximately the same. In the trample disaster, asphyxia is the main cause of the death. This paper reports the casualties in the fatality, demonstrating the relationship between the casualty constitution and the force created during the crush.

• 出版日期2008-10
• 单位齐鲁工业大学; 南开大学