Analysis of flight delay propagation using Bayesian networks

作者：Li Junsheng^*; Ding Jianli

来源：Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2008, 29(6): 1598-1604.

• Associated airport
• Delay propagation
• Expectation maximizations
• Flight connecting
• Flight delay
• Flight delays
• Hub airports
• Propagation analyses
• Scheduled flights
• Test results

As there exists a link between the scheduled flights, each scheduled flight delay can affect the downstream airport and its scheduled flight.Therefore methods are needed to investigate and visualize the propagation of delays for flight-connection at hub airports. The Bayesian network (BN) is an effective propagation analysis method. In this article, a flight delay propagation model is developed based on the BNs by analysis of a certain hub airport flight delays which will affect associated airports and connecting flights. By utilizing some actual airline data, the article reports training of the model through the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, and gives the test results, which clearly demonstrate the value of BN for analyzing the system-level effects arising from micro-level causes.

• 出版日期2008