Strong earthquake risk assessment of eastern segment on the East Kunlun fault in the next 100 years based on paleo-earthquake data

作者：Li Zheng-Fang^*; Zhou Ben-Gang; Ran Hong-Liu

来源：Acta Geophysica Sinica, 2012, 55(9): 3051-3065.

DOI：10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.09.023

• Eastern segment of East Kunlun fault
• Probabilistic model of earthquake recurrence
• Strong earthquake risk assessment
• Recurrence probability

Based on the 22 data of paleo-earthquake in Northeastern Tibet Plateau, we established a probabilistic model of earthquake recurrence in the area, and studied the conditional probabilities for the recurrence of strong earthquakes in the eastern segments of East Kunlun fault zone in the next 100 years. The results show that two segments (Maqen and Tazang) of the fault zone have low probabilistic values between 0.76%similar to 7.36% in next 20 similar to 100 years; The recurrence probabilities of Maqu segment in 20 and 50 years lie between 2.0%similar to 5.26%, but the probability in 100 years is 10.82% which is relatively high. Based on the uncertainty of probabilistic model, we made a qualitative classification for different segment in terms of danger, and thought that Maqen segment has lower risk in next 100 years, Maqu and Tazang segment has higher risk in next 100 year. At last, through comparing probabilistic values computed by two different models, we found that dependent variable P is less sensitive with increasing of independent variable t/R in the general probability model of earthquake recurrence.

• 出版日期2012-9
• 单位中国地震局