A counterfactual analysis on unlimited surplus labor in rural China

作者：Cai Fang^*; Wang Meiyan

来源：China and World Economy, 2008, 16(1): 51-65.

DOI：10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00099.x

• comparative labor productivity
• income gap
• surplus labor
• technological change

Using a counterfactual analysis approach, the present paper examines a host of conventional wisdoms relating to issues of farmer, the countryside and agriculture, which are believed to be all originated from the existence of mass surplus laborers in China. When analyzing various sources of statistics, evidence shows that there is no longer a large pool of surplus laborers in rural China as most people believe. Based on this counterfactual result, all related events, such as the direction of agricultural technological changes, the level of comparative productivity of agricultural labor, and the degree of rural-urban income gap must be reconsidered.

• 出版日期2008-2
• 单位中国社会科学院