Impact of Induced Seismicity on the Evaluation of Seismic Hazard: Some Preliminary Considerations

作者：Atkinson Gail M^*; Ghofrani Hadi; Assatourians Karen

来源：Seismological Research Letters, 2015, 86(3): 1009-1021.

DOI：10.1785/0220140204

A case study of seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing operations near Fox Creek, Alberta, is used to evaluate the extent to which the potential for induced seismicity at a site alters the pre-existing hazard from natural seismicity. We find that in low-to-moderate seismicity environments, the hazard from an induced-seismicity source, if one is activated in close proximity to a site, can greatly exceed the hazard from natural background seismicity at most probabilities of engineering interest, over a wide frequency range. The most important parameters in determining the induced-seismicity hazard are the activation probability and the b-value of the initiated sequence. Uncertainty in the value of the key input parameters to a hazard analysis implies large uncertainty (more than an order of magnitude) in the likelihood of strong shaking.

• 出版日期2015-6