Multimodel ensemble prediction for climate change trend of China under SRES A2 scenario

作者：Jiang DB^*; Wang HJ; Lang XM

来源：Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2004, 47(5): 776-784.

• SRES A2 scenario
• temperature
• sea level pressure
• precipitation

Based on the outputs as simulated by seven climate models under SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario, we analyze the decadal climate change trend of China during 2001 to 2030. It is revealed that the surface temperature, the maximum temperature, and the minimum temperature over China will rise by 0.3 - 2.3degreesC, 0.1 - 2.0degreesC, and 0.5 - 2.7degreesC, respectively, and enhancement magnitude is generally larger toward high latitudes and gradually enlarges with time march. In addition, the warming magnitude of variables mentioned above will be larger in winter than synchronizing summer, and the increase of the surface minimum temperature will be larger than the maximum temperature in the corresponding period, which leads to the smaller intra-seasonal variation of the surface temperature. Sea level pressure anomalies over East Asia in winter will be confined within - 1.0hPa to 0.4hPa and exhibit a zonal band-shape distribution, with the positive (negative) values in south (north) parts. Moreover, the anomaly magnitude will become larger, and zero contour line will move southward with time running, at the same time with larger negative values in Northeast, North, and West China. Sea level pressure anomalies in summer will resemble that in winter. The results also show that summer precipitation will increase by 0.1 similar to 0.8mm/d over most parts of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau Southeast China, and the Hetao region during 2001 to 2030.

• 出版日期2004-9
• 单位中国科学院大气物理研究所