科研之友
微信
新浪微博
Facebook
分享链接
摘要
A mathematical model has been developed for the calculation of the future evolution of solar electricity costs, which is mainly based on the predicted cumulative installed power between 2012 and 2050. The model can be applied to both photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. According to our model, the equation giving the yearly cost evolution of the electricity depends on several input variables, among them are the cumulative installed capacity q(t), the solar resource, the cost of the systems, operation and maintenance costs, learning rate, lifetime of the systems, financial discount rates, etc. The specific values of q(t) are taken from the two main roadmaps contemplated by the International Energy Agency (IEA): the 2008 BLUE Maps for PV and CSP, and the 2010 Technology Roadmaps for PV and CSP. An important contribution of our model is that the results calculated for the evolution of costs, as well as the years in which grid parities are reached, show a significant dependence, not only on the particular values of q(t) in the targeted years but also on the specific curved time-paths followed in the q(t) vs t plane. Since our model calculates the cost evolution by means of a closed equation, it allows to directly plot the future yearly evolution of the cost of the electricity for any value of the independent variables.
- 出版日期2013-3-1
