A logistic delay differential equation model for Chagas disease with interrupted spraying schedules

作者：Spagnuolo Anna Maria^*; Shillor Meir; Kingsland Lindsey; Thatcher Andrea; Toeniskoetter Matthew; Wood Benjamin

来源：Journal of Biological Dynamics, 2012, 6(2): 377-394.

DOI：10.1080/17513758.2011.587896

• Chagas disease
• spraying with insecticides
• epidemic dynamics
• delay logistic model
• numerical simulations
• steady states
• nonlinear dynamical system

This work studies a mathematical model for the dynamics of Chagas disease, a parasitic disease that affects humans and domestic mammals throughout rural areas in Central and South America. It presents a modified version of the model found in Spagnuolo et al. [A model for Chagas disease with controlled spraying, J. Biol. Dyn. 5 (2011), pp. 299-317] with a delayed logistic growth term, which captures an overshoot, beyond the vector carrying capacity, in the total vector population when the blood meal supply is large. It studies the steady states of the system in the case of constant coefficients without spraying, and the analysis shows that for given-averaged parameters, the endemic equilibrium is stable and attracting. The numerical simulations of the model dynamics with time-dependent coefficients are shown when interruptions in the annual insecticide spraying cycles are taken into account. Simulations show that when there are spraying schedule interruptions, spraying may become ineffective when the blood meal supply is large.

• 出版日期2012