科研之友
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摘要
This study analyses the environmental sustainability status of China using a modified ecological footprint (EF) method which takes into account the freshwater ecological footprint, improves the energy ecological footprint, and amends the equivalence factor and yield factor. Then the linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN) models are applied to predict future ecological security. The results show that: (1) The per capita EF increased by three times from 1978 to 2013, whereas the per capita ecological carrying capacity experienced only a slight increase although the equivalence and yield factors were both enhanced. (2) The 'degree of ecological security' appeared to show a tendency to increase, indicating that China is in a 'pretty unsafe' ecological state. (3) EF intensity, which is used to represent the resource consumption level corresponding to unit economic output, indicated that the utilisation ratio of Chinese natural resources was greatly enhanced during the study period. (4) The ecological footprint diversity index, and ecological and economic coordination coefficient, peaked in the 1990s and then began to fall, indicating that China's ecological environment, as well as its coordination with the economy, was considered to be better in the 1990s but then gradually deteriorated. (5) The predictions of ARIMA-ANN model indicated that the degree of ecological security in China would reach an unsafe state in a few years if certain effective measures were not taken. These findings could be helpful for decision-makers as they strive to make a better package of plans to ensure an ecological balance and a more sustainable future.
- 出版日期2018-5
- 单位北京理工大学; 中国地质大学（北京）; 对外经济贸易大学
