A novel hybrid approach based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Ant Colony Algorithm to forecast energy demand of Turkey

作者：Kiran Mustafa Servet; Ozceylan Eren^*; Gunduz Mesut; Paksoy Turan

来源：Energy Conversion and Management, 2012, 53(1): 75-83.

DOI：10.1016/j.enconman.2011.08.004

• Ant Colony Optimization
• Energy demand
• Estimation
• Hybrid meta-heuristic
• Particle Swarm Optimization
• Turkey

This paper proposes a new hybrid method (HAP) for estimating energy demand of Turkey using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). Proposed energy demand model (HAPE) is the first model which integrates two mentioned meta-heuristic techniques. While, PSO, developed for solving continuous optimization problems, is a population based stochastic technique; ACO, simulating behaviors between nest and food source of real ants, is generally used for discrete optimizations. Hybrid method based PSO and ACO is developed to estimate energy demand using gross domestic product (GDP), population, import and export. HAPE is developed in two forms which are linear (HAPEL) and quadratic (HAPEQ). The future energy demand is estimated under different scenarios. In order to show the accuracy of the algorithm, a comparison is made with ACO and PSO which are developed for the same problem. According to obtained results, relative estimation errors of the HAPE model are the lowest of them and quadratic form (HAPEQ) provides better-fit solutions due to fluctuations of the socio-economic indicators.

• 出版日期2012-1