Advance prediction of the March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake: A missed opportunity for disaster preparedness

作者：Davis C^*; Keilis Borok V; Kossobokov V; Soloviev A

来源：International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2012, 1: 17-32.

DOI：10.1016/j.ijdrr.2012.03.001

• Earthquake prediction
• Forecast
• Emergency management
• Disaster preparedness
• Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami

There was a missed opportunity for implementing important disaster preparedness measures following an earthquake prediction that was announced as an alarm in mid-2001. This intermediate-term middle-range prediction was the initiation of a chain of alarms that successfully detected the time, region, and magnitude range for the magnitude 9.0 March 11, 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The prediction chains were made using an algorithm called M8 and is the latest of many predictions tested worldwide for more than 25 years, the results of which show at least a 70% success rate. The earthquake detection could have been utilized to implement measures and improve earthquake preparedness in advance; unfortunately this was not done, in part due to the predictions' limited distribution and the lack of applying existing methods for using intermediate-term predictions to make decisions for taking action. The resulting earthquake and induced tsunami caused tremendous devastation to north-east Japan. Methods that were known in advance of the predication and further advanced during the prediction timeframe are presented in a scenario describing some possibilities on how the 2001 prediction may have been utilized to reduce significant damage, including damage to the Fukushima nuclear power plant, and to show prudent costeffective actions can be taken if the prediction certainty is known, but not necessarily high. The purpose of this paper is to show how the prediction information can be strategically used to enhance disaster preparedness and reduce future impacts from the world's largest earthquakes.

• 出版日期2012-10