An analysis of the changing dependency ratios for small areas in 1981, 1991 and 2001: a Norfolk case study

作者：Walford Nigel S^*

来源：Journal of Maps, 2010, 6(1): 370-381.

DOI：10.4113/jom.2010.1104

The analysis of demographic and socio-economic change in the UK is hampered by adjustments made to the principal, reliable source of data for small areas, the decennial Population Census, and by the statistical problem of absolute changes having disproportionate effects on of account of variability in population totals at the start of the period(s) under investigation. The two main sets of adjustments to the census affect its geography and statistical content. This paper explores the use of a spatial analysis technique known as dasymetric mapping to create estimates of census counts for consistent geographical features spanning the 1981, 1991 and 2001 censuses. Parallel analyses of age structure have been carried out for two sets of small geographical features: one set comprises the 1981 enumeration districts for which estimates of comparable 1991 and 2001 attributes have been computed; and the other the 2001 Census Output Areas for which the 1981 and 1991 age structure counts have been estimated. Selected census count estimates have been mapped at a scale of 1: 2,820,000 to explore how age structure has changed in these small areas in order to exemplify potential use of the output datasets from this spatial analysis. Rather than attempting to visualise age structure dynamics for 130,000 1981 enumeration districts and 220,000 output areas, this paper focuses on the county of Norfolk in the East of England Government Office Region, which is noted for having experienced considerable growth in its population over the last three decades.

• 出版日期2010