An antibiotic protocol to minimize emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis

作者：de Espindola Aquino L^*; Girardi Daniel; Penna T J P; Bauch Chris T; Troca Cabella Brenno C; Martinez Alexandre Souto

来源：Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications , 2014, 400: 80-92.

DOI：10.1016/j.physa.2013.12.039

• Complex systems
• Within-host model
• Epidemiology
• Tuberculosis

A within-host model of the spread of tuberculosis is proposed here where the emergence of drug resistance and bacterial dormancy are simultaneously combined. We consider both sensitive and resistant strains of tuberculosis pathogens as well as a dormant state of these bacteria. The dynamics of the within-host system is modeled by a set of coupled differential equations which are numerically solved to find a relation between the within-host bacterial populations and the host health states. The values of the parameters were taken from the current literature when available; a sensitivity analysis was performed for the others. Antibiotic treatment for standard, intermittent and oscillating intermittent protocols is analyzed for different conditions. Our results suggest that the oscillating protocol is the most effective one, that would imply a lower treatment cost.

• 出版日期2014-4-15