A Study of Energy Consumption and Exhaust Emissions from Beijing's Civil Vehicles from Years 2008 to 2020

作者：Zhao, Li-xiang^*; Xiong, Yi-long; Wang, Wan-qiu; Song, Wei; Wu, Tian-hao

来源：Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2012, 18(2): 412-434.

DOI：10.1080/10807039.2012.652465

• civil vehicles
• energy consumption
• exhaust emissions
• air pollution
• energy conservation

The number of Beijing's civil vehicles is growing rapidly due to the great support of the automobile industry and the Chinese government and the increasing average per capita income of China's people. Exhaust emissions from vehicles have already become the main source of Beijing's air pollution. Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP), this article predicts the energy consumption and exhaust emissions from Beijing's civil vehicles. Also, we estimated the reduction potentials of China's new fuel consumption standards and exhaust pollutants standards that will be implemented from 2008 to 2020. Two scenarios were developed: "Business as Usual" (BAU) and "New Standard" (NS). In the BAU scenario, the Chinese government would do nothing to improve the fuel consumption standards and exhaust pollutants standards in the future. In the NS scenario, the Chinese government would implement more strict fuel consumption standards and exhaust pollutants standards for Beijing's civil vehicles. By comparing the results of the two scenarios for year 2020, the energy consumption will experience a reduction of 7.8%, and the exhaust pollutants CO, HC, NOX, PM, and the emissions of CO2 would decrease by 43.3%, 36.4%, 60.3%, 81.2%, and 7.8%, respectively.

• 出版日期2012
• 单位北京工业大学