Association Rule Data Mining Applications for Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes

作者：Yang Ruixin^*; Tang Jiang; Sun Donglian

来源：Weather and Forecasting, 2011, 26(3): 337-353.

DOI：10.1175/WAF-D-10-05029.1

This study applies a data mining technique called association rule mining to the analysis of intensity changes of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). The "best track'' data from the National Hurricane Center and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme databases were stratified into tropical depressions, tropical storms, and category 1-5 hurricanes based on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. After stratification, the seven resulting groups of TCs plus two additional aggregation groups were further separated into intensifying, weakening, and stable TCs. The analysis of the stratified data for preprocessing revealed that faster northward storm motion (the meridional component of storm motion) favors tropical storm intensification but does not favor the intensification of hurricanes. Intensifying tropical storms are more strongly associated with a higher convergence in the upper atmosphere (200-hPa relative eddy momentum flux convergence) than weakening tropical storms, while intensifying hurricanes are more strongly associated with lower convergence values. The mined association rules showed that cofactors usually display higher-intensity prediction power in the stratified TC groups. The data mining results also identified a predictor set with fewer factors but improved probabilities of rapid intensification. This study found that the data mining technique not only sheds light on the roles of multiple-associated physical processes in tropical cyclone development-especially in rapid intensification processes-but also will help improve TC intensity forecasting. This paper provides an outline on how to use this data mining technique and how to overcome low occurrences of mined conditions in order to improve TC intensity forecasting capabilities.

• 出版日期2011-6