Extension of the match-mismatch hypothesis to predator-controlled systems

作者：Durant Joel M^*; Hjermann Dag O; Falkenhaug Tone; Gifford Dian J; Naustvoll Lars Johan; Sullivan Barbara K; Beaugrand Gregory; Stenseth Nils Chr

来源：Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2013, 474: 43-52.

DOI：10.3354/meps10089

• Predator-prey interaction
• Recruitment
• Trophic control
• Top-down
• Bottom-up
• Narrangansett Bay
• Skagerrak
• North Sea

Differential change in the phenology of predators and prey is a potentially important climate-mediated mechanism influencing populations. The match-mismatch hypothesis describes the effect of predator-prey population synchrony on predator development and survival and is used to describe climate effects on ecological patterns and processes in prey-controlled terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We evaluated the hypothesis by considering the broader effects of predator-prey synchrony on prey standing stock and survival in addition to its well documented effects on the predator. Specifically, we suggest that an increase in asynchrony between predator and prey peak abundance can lead to increased survival and potentially increased recruitment of the prey in some systems. Using generalized additive models, we demonstrated that the match mismatch hypothesis can be used not only for prey-controlled systems, but also for predator controlled systems.

• 出版日期2013