科研之友
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摘要
Sinkholes in karst areas disrupt transportation route serviceability causing significant direct and indirect economic losses and may lead to accidents involving fatalities. A quantitative procedure has been developed to identify the most suitable mitigation designs for a road recently built in an area with a very high probability of sinkhole occurrence. Installation of geogrids with different resistances to a variable number of road sections has been simulated taking into account the occurrence probability of sinkholes with different diameters in each section. The proposed methodology includes the following phases: (1) Development of a sinkhole hazard model that predicts the occurrence probability of sinkholes with different diameters in each 5 x 5 m pixel of the road. (2) Vulnerability appraisal of the road by means of stability analyses. (3) Risk assessment for the %26quot;without geogrid%26quot; and multiple %26quot;with geogrid%26quot; scenarios including direct and indirect economic losses, as well as expected number of fatalities. (4) Cost-benefit analysis to estimate the net benefit of the mitigation designs. (5) Acceptability analysis considering geogrid solutions based on cost-effectiveness, conventional (maximum acceptable rate of fatalities) and utility-based (maximum acceptable investment in mitigation to prevent fatalities) criteria. (6) Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of the uncertainty of a set of parameters on the most critical results from the risk management perspective. The presented method could be easily adapted to other geohazards (e.g. shallow landslides, rock-falls, piping), different infrastructures (e.g. railways), as well as to other corrective measures (e.g. concrete slabs, catch fences, armoured roofs, steel meshes, barrier systems).
- 出版日期2012-9-7
