Near-term limits to mitigation: Challenges arising from contrary mitigation effects from indirect land-use change and sulfur emissions

作者：Calvin Katherine^*; Wise Marshall; Clarke Leon; Edmonds James; Jones Andrew; Thomson Allison

来源：Energy Economics, 2014, 42: 233-239.

DOI：10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.026

• Integrated Assessment Modeling
• Indirect land-use change emissions

We explore the implications of potentially counteractive greenhouse gas mitigation responses to carbon prices and the complications that could ensue for limiting radiative forcing in the near-term. Specifically we consider the problem of reproducing the radiative forcing pathway for Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP4.5, which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (650 ppm CO2-e) under a different terrestrial policy assumption. We show that if indirect land-use change emissions are not priced, carbon prices that can replicate this pathway in the near-term may not exist. We further show that additional complexities could emerge as a consequence of the co-production of CO2 and sulfur emissions as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion.

• 出版日期2014-3