摘要

A new two-point-estimation (TPE) based power system low-frequency-oscillation probability stability analysis method (TLPA) suitable for large scale power system is proposed in this paper. The probability stability index is defined. If the probability distributions of the uncertainties in the power system are known, the probability of occurring low-frequency-oscillation because of these uncertainties can be calculated out based on TPE by very less computation. The digital simulation results of the IEEE-16-generator power system and the Central China-North China interconnected bulk power system demonstrate that: the same precision with less computation can be achieved by TLPA comparing to Monte Carlo simulation. So it is practical for large scale power system.

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