Hour-ahead demand forecasting in smart grid using support vector regression (SVR)

作者：Fattaheian Dehkordi Sajjad; Fereidunian Alireza^*; Gholami Dehkordi Hamid; Lesani Hamid

来源：International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems, 2014, 24(12): 1650-1663.

DOI：10.1002/etep.1791

• demand forecasting
• demand responsiveness
• short-term load forecasting
• support vector regression
• SVR

Demand forecasting plays an important role as a decision support tool in power system management, especially in smart grid and liberalized power market. In this paper, a demand forecasting method is presented by using support vector regression (SVR). The proposed method is applied to practical hourly data of the Greater Tehran Electricity Distribution Company. The SVR parameters are selected by using a grid optimization process and an investigation on different kernel functions. Moreover, correlation analysis is used to find exogenous variables. Acceptable accuracy of load prediction is shown by comparing the result of SVR model to that of the artificial neural networks and the actual data, concluding that the method is applicable to day-ahead spot pricing of electricity in the liberalized power market.

• 出版日期2014-12