An Application of the Short-Term Forecasting with Limited Data in the Healthcare Traveling Industry

作者：Dang Hoang Sa^*; Huang Ying Fang; Wang Chia Nan; Nguyen Thuy Mai Trinh

来源：Sustainability, 2016, 8(10): 1037.

DOI：10.3390/su8101037

• forecasting
• limited data
• healthcare traveling industry

In real practice, forecasting under the limited data has attracted more attention in business activities, especially in the healthcare traveling industry in its current stage. However, there are only a few research studies focusing on this issue. Thus, the purposes of this paper were to determine the forecasted performance of several current forecasting methods as well as to examine their applications. Taking advantage of the small data requirement for model construction, three models including the exponential smoothing model, the Grey model GM(1,1), and the modified Lotka-Volterra model (L.V.), were used to conduct forecasting analyses based on the data of foreign patients from 2001 to 2013 in six destinations. The results indicated that the L.V. model had higher prediction power than the other two models, and it obtained the best forecasting performance with an 89.7% precision rate. In conclusion, the L.V. model is the best model for estimating the market size of the healthcare traveling industry, followed by the GM(1,1) model. The contribution of this study is to offer a useful statistical tool for short-term planning, which can be applied to the healthcare traveling industry in particular, and for other business forecasting under the conditions of limited data in general.

• 出版日期2016-10