Approaching a state shift in Earth%26apos;s biosphere

作者:Barnosky Anthony D*; Hadly Elizabeth A; Bascompte Jordi; Berlow Eric L; Brown James H; Fortelius Mikael; Getz Wayne M; Harte John; Hastings Alan; Marquet Pablo A; Martinez Neo D; Mooers Arne; Roopnarine Peter; Vermeij Geerat; Williams John W; Gillespie Rosemary; Kitzes Justin; Marshall Charles; Matzke Nicholas; Mindell David P; Revilla Eloy; Smith Adam B
来源:Nature, 2012, 486(7401): 52-58.
DOI:10.1038/nature11018

摘要

Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale %26apos;tipping point%26apos; highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

  • 出版日期2012-6-7