科研之友
微信
新浪微博
Facebook
分享链接
摘要
River deltas grow in response to sediment discharge from the land. It is not clear, however, whether or not there is a limit for such growth. Conceptual geometric models are used in this paper, in association with the principle of mass conservation, in an attempt to answer this question. Preliminary analyses of the Changjiang Delta indicate that delta growth is constrained by a number of factors: the original topography/bathymetry, sediment supply, sediment retention in the estuary, sea-level rise, ground subsidence. The quantity of sediment supply per unit area and the Sediment Retention Index for the subaqueous delta decrease as the delta progrades towards deeper water, resulting in a decreasing rate of growth. The limit of growth is reached when the index approaches zero, i.e. the shoreline reaches the shelf edge. If the combined effect of sea-level rise and ground subsidence is considered together with decrease in the sediment discharge from land, the limit is reached at an earlier stage. For the Changjiang Delta, the model output (using hypothesized Sediment Retention Index estimates) implies that the delta growth will reach its limit in the near future. This will occur sooner if the sediment output of the river is reduced to 60% of its original level, in response to the upstream basin changes. Further knowledge, however, is required of the Retention Index, together with the information on future changes in river input and the character of the sediments in order to improve the accuracy of the simulations.
- 出版日期2007-3-30
- 单位南京大学
