Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

作者：Seneviratne, Sonia I.^*; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J.; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L.

来源：Nature, 2016, 529(7587): 477-483.

DOI：10.1038/nature16542

• EXTREMES INDEXES
• CMIP5
• PRECIPITATION
• TEMPERATURE
• ENSEMBLE
• PATTERN
• BIASES

Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional-and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

• 出版日期2016-1-28