科研之友
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摘要
This study discusses decoupling trends in world economic growth and CO2 emissions based on decoupling theories. The decoupling trends of economic growth and CO2 emissions in typical developed and developing countries in 1965-2015 are compared by using an OECD decoupling factor model, and Tapio elastic analysis (TEA) method, and the IGTX decoupling model. On this basis, this study evaluates correlations of these three decoupling models by employing the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. The research indicates that, owing to the IGTX decoupling model being easily affected by other non environmental factors, the shorter the research period of interest, the more easily the decoupling indices distort, while the accuracy of the TEA method is not limited by the length of the research period of interest. With respect to the overall decoupling trend, the research shows that: (1) strong decoupling is found in developed countries and slightly increases in the stabilisation thereof. The decoupling state in the United Kingdom and Germany is more stable than that of the United States and France. (2) Developing countries demonstrate weak decoupling that fluctuates significantly and lacks regularity. The stabilisation and optimisation of China in decoupling process are better than those of Brazil and India. Finally, according to research conclusions, relevant policies and suggestions are proposed in view of energy savings and emissions reduction in developing countries.
