Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series

作者：Viola Flavio M; Paiva Susana L D; Savi Marcelo A^*

来源：Ecological Modelling, 2010, 221(16): 1964-1978.

DOI：10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.05.001

• Global warming
• Climate changes
• Time series
• Nonlinear prediction
• State space reconstruction
• Nonlinear dynamics

Global warming is the observed increase of the average temperature of the Earth. The primary cause of this phenomenon is the release of the greenhouse gases by burning of fossil fuels, land cleaning, agriculture, among others, leading to the increase of the so-called greenhouse effect. An approach to deal with this important problem is the time series analysis. In this regard, different techniques can be applied to evaluate the global warming dynamics. This kind of analysis allows one to make better predictions increasing our comprehension of the phenomenon. This article applies nonlinear tools to analyze temperature time series establishing state space reconstruction and prediction. Since noise contamination is unavoidable in data acquisition, it is important to employ robust techniques. The method of delay coordinates is employed for state space reconstruction and delay parameters are evaluated using the method of average mutual information and the method of false nearest neighbors. Afterwards, the simple nonlinear prediction method is employed to estimate temperatures of the future. Temperature time series from different places of the planet are used. Initially, the approach is verified considering known parts of the time series and afterwards, results are extrapolated for future values estimating temperature until 2028. Results show that these techniques are interesting to estimate temperature time history, presenting coherent estimations.

• 出版日期2010-8-10