A MULTIPATCH MALARIA MODEL WITH LOGISTIC GROWTH POPULATIONS

作者：Gao Daozhou^*; Ruan Shigui

来源：SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 2012, 72(3): 819-841.

DOI：10.1137/110850761

• basic reproduction number
• malaria
• patch model
• human movement
• travel rate
• disease-free equilibrium
• monotonicity

In this paper, we propose a multipatch model to study the effects of population dispersal on the spatial spread of malaria between patches. The basic reproduction number R-0 is derived, and it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R-0 %26lt; 1 and unstable if R-0 %26gt; 1. Bounds on the disease-free equilibrium and R-0 are given. A sufficient condition for the existence of an endemic equilibrium when R-0 %26gt; 1 is obtained. For the two-patch submodel, the dependence of R-0 on the movement of exposed, infectious, and recovered humans between the two patches is investigated. Numerical simulations indicate that travel can help the disease to become endemic in both patches, even though the disease dies out in each isolated patch. However, if travel rates are continuously increased, the disease may die out again in both patches.

• 出版日期2012