Dairy goat kids fed liquid diets in substitution of goat milk and slaughtered at different ages: an economic viability analysis using Monte Carlo techniques

作者：Knupp L S; Veloso C M^*; Marcondes M I; Silveira T S; Silva A L; Souza N O; Knupp S N R; Cannas A

来源：Animal, 2016, 10(3): 490-499.

DOI：10.1017/S1751731115002232

• goats
• milk substitutes
• Monte Carlo method
• suckling
• weaning

The aim of this study was to analyze the economic viability of producing dairy goat kids fed liquid diets in alternative of goat milk and slaughtered at two different ages. Forty-eight male newborn Saanen and Alpine kids were selected and allocated to four groups using a completely randomized factorial design: goat milk (GM), cow milk (CM), commercial milk replacer (CMR) and fermented cow colostrum (FC). Each group was then divided into two groups: slaughter at 60 and 90 days of age. The animals received Tifton hay and concentrate ad libitum. The values of total costs of liquid and solid feed plus labor, income and average gross margin were calculated. The data were then analyzed using the Monte Carlo techniques with the @Risk 5.5 software, with 1000 iterations of the variables being studied through the model. The kids fed GM and CMR generated negative profitability values when slaughtered at 60 days (U5$ -16.4 and U5$ -2.17, respectively) and also at 90 days (U5$ -30.8 and U5$ -0.18, respectively). The risk analysis showed that there is a 98% probability that profitability would be negative when GM is used. In this regard, CM and FC presented low risk when the kids were slaughtered at 60 days (8.5% and 21.2%, respectively) and an even lower risk when animals were slaughtered at 90 days (5.2% and 18%, respectively). The kids fed CM and slaughtered at 90 days presented the highest average gross income (U5$ -67.88) and also average gross margin (U5$ -18.43/animal). For the 60-day rearing regime to be economically viable, the CMR cost should not exceed 11.47% of the animal-selling price. This implies that the replacer cannot cost more than U5$ -0.39 and 0.43/kg for the 60- and 90-day feeding regimes, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the variables with the greatest impact on the final model's results were animal selling price, liquid diet cost, final weight at slaughter and labor. In conclusion, the production of male dairy goat kids can be economically viable when the kids diet consists mainly of either cow milk or fermented colostrum, especially when kids are slaughtered at 90 days of age.

• 出版日期2016-3