Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China

作者：Li, Jia; Liu, Fang; Xue, Yadong; Zhang, Yu; Li, Diqiang^*

来源：Ecology and Evolution, 2017, 7(11): 4003-4015.

DOI：10.1002/ece3.2981

• adaptive conservation strategies
• Maxent
• nature reserve
• suitable habitat
• vulnerability

Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281km(2) from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987km(2)) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.

• 出版日期2017-6
• 单位中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所