Application of grey modeling method to fitting and forecasting wear trend of marine diesel engines

作者：Zhang, H^*; Li, ZG; Chen, ZN

来源：Tribology International, 2003, 36(10): 753-756.

DOI：10.1016/S0301-679X(03)00056-2

• oil monitoring
• spectrometric analysis
• unequal interval
• revised grey model
• diesel engine
• wear trend prediction

Oil monitoring is an important and useful method for predicting wear failure, and has been used in diesel engines successfully. The diesel engine is the key power equipment in ships and it is a complicated tribological system with uncertainty and indetermination. Grey system theory is suitable for systems in which some information is clear and some is not, so it is feasible to study the wear process of diesel engines with this theory. The unequal interval revised grey model (UIRGM) (1,1) is presented in this paper, which is applicable to original series with unequal intervals and sharp variation. The model that is built is applied to fit and predict element concentration as determined by oil spectrometric analysis. It is proved that UIRGM (1,1) determines the exact turning point, and the fitting and prediction results are acceptable.

• 出版日期2003-10
• 单位上海交通大学