Detection of annual meteorological Droughts in the state of Zacatecas, Mexico, based on standardized anomaly indices

作者：Francisco Campos Aranda Daniel

来源：Tecnologia y Ciencias del Agua, 2018, 9(1): 135-149.

DOI：10.24850/j-tyca-2018-01-10

• Standard deviation
• standardized anomaly index
• Pedj drought index
• statistical tests
• moving averages
• major droughts

Meteorological droughts (MD) are a temporary decrease in the normal rainfall received by a location or a region. In order to formulate plans for mitigation of damages, it becomes necessary to study the droughts to estimate related features. In this work the occurrence of annual MD is detected and its severity is estimated through the Pedj drought index (PDI), defined as the difference between the standardized anomalies of the mean temperature and of precipitation, both annual estimates. Sixteen PDI series were calculated, in the state of Zacatecas, Mexico, whose common period was 65 years in the lapse from 1950 to 2014. After verifying their homogeneity, such series were analyzed with various statistical methods, to establish their local and regional behavior. At the local level the most severe sequences of five years are detected and analyzed, as well as the ten most extreme droughts. The regional analysis helped finding the drought years that affected a large number of climatological stations, in each of the three geographical areas analyzed. As the PDI dates from mid-seventies was contrasted with a recent index, the RDI ST. Based on all analyzes, it is concluded that the PDI is a simple technique that allows the accurate detection at local and regional level of annual MD; therefore its systematic application is recommended. This implementation will allow the verification of results of other indices of drought and make it possible to know the MD as time series, the latter oriented to forecasting.

• 出版日期2018-2