Analysis of the El Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation variability and malaria in the Estado Sucre, Venezuela

作者：Delgado Petrocelli Laura^*; Cordova Karenia; Camardiel Alberto; Aguilar Victor H; Hernandez Denise; Ramos Santiago

来源：Geospatial Health, 2012, 6(3): S51-S57.

• climate variability
• El Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation
• geographical information systems
• malaria
• Venezuela

The last decade has seen an unprecedented, worldwide acceleration of environmental and climate changes. These processes impact the dynamics of natural systems, which include components associated with human communities such as vector-borne diseases. The dynamics of environmental and climate variables, altered by global change as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, affect the distribution of many tropical diseases. Complex systems, e. g. the El Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in which environmental variables operate synergistically, can provoke the re-emergence and emergence of vector-borne diseases at new sites. This research investigated the influence of ENSO events on malaria incidence by determining the relationship between climate variations, expressed as warm, cold and neutral phases, and their relation to the number of malaria cases in some north-eastern municipalities of Venezuela (Estado Sucre) during the period 1990-2000. Significant differences in malaria incidence were found, particularly in the La Nina ENSO phases (cold) of moderate intensity. These findings should be taken into account for surveillance and control in the future as they shed light on important indicators that can lead to reduced vulnerability to malaria.

• 出版日期2012-9